Common Biases in Decision Making: Understanding and Mitigating Cognitive Pitfalls
Introduction
Construction success and failure relies on making a multitude of decisions in a fast paced and uncertain environment based on incomplete information. As Engineers, we pride ourselves on using data to making logical and rational decisions. However, it must be noted, that Engineers are indeed human, and humans are subject to a series of cognitive biases that greatly impact our decision making.
The Role of Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases, often referred to as heuristics, are mental shortcuts that our brains have evolved to conserve energy during decision-making. While these shortcuts serve us well in many situations, they can lead us astray when making critical choices. Let’s explore some prevalent biases and their implications for engineers:
1. Anchoring Bias
Description
Anchoring bias occurs when we rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”) when making subsequent decisions.
Example
Imagine a civil engineer estimating project costs. If the initial cost estimate is too high, subsequent adjustments tend to cluster around that anchor, even if more accurate data suggests otherwise. This is also a common tool used in negotiation where the first offer acts as an anchor for offers thereafter.
How to Avoid
Broaden Your Reference Points: Consider a range of relevant data points rather than fixating on a single reference value.
Question the Anchor: Challenge the initial information and seek alternative perspectives.
2. Status Quo Bias
Description
Status quo bias leads us to favour maintaining the current state or sticking with familiar options, even when better alternatives exist.
Example
A supervisor hesitates to adopt new construction methods because they’re accustomed to the existing practices.
How to Avoid
Actively Evaluate Alternatives: Regularly assess whether the current approach remains optimal.
Encourage Innovation: Create an environment that encourages experimentation and embraces change.
3. Sunk Cost Bias
Description
Sunk cost bias occurs when we continue investing in a project or decision because we’ve already committed resources (time, money, effort), even if it’s no longer rational.
Example
A project manager insists on continuing with a failing methodology because significant resources have already been allocated.
How to Avoid
Focus on Future Costs and Benefits: Evaluate decisions based on their future impact rather than past investments.
Conduct Regular Reviews: Reassess ongoing projects objectively, considering the current situation.
4. Confirmation Bias
Description
Confirmation bias leads us to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs while ignoring evidence that contradicts them.
Example
A geotechnical engineer researching soil stability selectively focuses on studies that support their preferred foundation design. This is evident with the polarisation of people on social media, actively reinforcing their pre-existing beliefs.
How to Avoid
Seek Diverse Perspectives: Actively seek out dissenting viewpoints and consider alternative hypotheses.
Challenge Assumptions: Question whether your initial beliefs are well-founded.
5. Estimating and Forecasting Bias
Description
Estimating and forecasting bias occurs when we consistently overestimate or underestimate project timelines, costs, or resource requirements.
Example
A Site Engineer consistently underestimates the time needed to close their outstanding lots. Thus, overpromising and under-delivering to their Project Manager.
How to Avoid
Use Historical Data: Base estimates on past project performance.
Involve Experts: Consult colleagues with relevant expertise to validate estimates.
6. Framing Bias
Description
Framing bias is influenced by how information is presented. We make different decisions based on the way a problem or choice is framed.
Example
A bridge designer evaluates two construction methods: “Traditional” vs. “Innovative.” The framing influences their preference.
How to Avoid
Reframe Problems: Consider different angles and viewpoints to gain a more balanced perspective.
Be Aware of Language: Pay attention to how information is framed in discussions.
Key Take-Aways
As engineers, acknowledging our cognitive biases is crucial. By understanding these pitfalls and applying effective techniques, we can enhance our decision-making process. Remember to question assumptions, seek diverse viewpoints, and remain open to change. Ultimately, our ability to mitigate biases contributes to better project outcomes and a resilient built environment.
References:
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124-140.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). [Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth]
